Coronavirus Models Project Sharp Increase In Deaths As States Relax Restrictions

(TheLibertyRevolution.Com)- It’s uncertain exactly what effects the loosening of coronavirus-related restrictions will have on the country just yet, but models are projecting a huge rise in COVID-19 deaths.
One of the most widely-accepted coronavirus models — one from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington — now believes that 134,000 people in the United States will die from COVID-19. That’s almost a doubling from its projection of 72,433 deaths from Monday morning.
The New York Times obtained an internal White House memo that also showed the Trump administration is expected confirmed cases and deaths will steadily rise in the coming weeks, topping off at 3,000 deaths each day by the start of June. In the last week, the daily death total was roughly 2,000.
President Donald Trump recently revised his own projection, saying the death toll could reach 80,000 to 90,000 people, up from 65,000 not long ago. At one point, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, Dr. Deborah Birx, said between 100,000 to 240,000 Americans may die from COVID-19, even if social distancing measures are adhered to.
The sharp rise in projected deaths is directly tied to states relaxing restrictions to allow people to move about more freely. This increased mobility will bring more people in contact with each other in their own states, as well as in other states as people begin to travel.
Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of the IHME, said:
“I think the challenge for us all is to figure out what’s the trajectory of relaxing social distancing on a measured pace that will protect us from big increases or even a full-scale resurgence.”
One of the scariest parts about re-opening the economy is that because the incubation period of the coronavirus is two to 14 days, many people spread the virus before they even know they have it.
Plenty of people remain asymptomatic the entire time, too, allowing them to spread it because they never feel bad. And because coronavirus testing is still limited, it’s tough to track who actually has it.
There are “several reasons” for the increase in projected deaths, according to a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the IHME, Ali Mokdad:
“One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation, of social distancing. We’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example. We’re seeing an increase in mobility that’s leading to an increase in mortality, unfortunately, in the United States.”
More and more states are working to re-open their economies every day, and while that shines hope for some, it’s scary for coronavirus models. Even with restrictions on the openings in place, the increased mobility and contact between people is likely to result in a further spread of the virus.
As of Tuesday morning, Johns Hopkins University reported there have been more than 1.18 million people in the United States infected with the coronavirus, with 68,000 related deaths.