(TheLibertyRevolution.com)- The 19FortyFive reports that the only nations that would profit from a cold war between the United States and China are places like Russia and North Korea. If the US and China engage in what the Biden administration calls “great power competition,” the rest of the Indo-Pacific would suffer severely.
China and the US have very different types of governments. Each dreads the other. China has territorial and reputational grievances, most notably regarding Taiwan, which its neighbors will not be able to satisfy and threaten war. However, we should still exert every effort to prevent a protracted conflict with China that could end in disaster.
Numerous states benefit from the Indo-current Pacific’s situation. US and Chinese relations are balanced. Many smaller nations, like those in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, do not want to dominate the area. They are happy with the current situation, in which trade with China fuels their economies, and the US offers some retaliation against China’s aggression.
Many regional middle powers view both players with mixed feelings. Even though the US is further away and more liberal than China, many developing nations are leery of aligning themselves too closely with the US due to its history of intervening in third-world countries. India serves as the model example. It and the US share democratic ideals. It also shares concerns about Chinese geopolitics and Islamic fundamentalism. Despite this, an alliance or other close relationship has never developed between India and the US, primarily due to India’s fear of being dominated by the US.
The US and China have alternately ruled over the Philippines. After leaving the US, former President Rodrigo Duterte encountered fierce opposition from the Philippine military. Because of the war on terrorism, Indonesia and Malaysia have long been wary of US power.
In other words, it is not a given that east Asian states will pick the US if the US and China have a major falling out and are forced to make a decision. A Sino-US cold war would be a political disaster for all these trading nations and an economic one if it resulted in the US or Chinese intervention in their domestic politics.
A cold war between China and the US seems likely despite the costs and shared interests. The developing nations that were the focus of US-Soviet competition bore the brunt of the first Cold War’s costs. This will probably occur once more during a US-China cold war.
It would most likely last for many years. As with the proxy wars and interventions of the first cold war, poor countries caught in the middle probably suffer the most. And only nations that cause trouble around the world, like North Korea or Russia, will profit.