One Model Predicts U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Could Be Much Lower Than Originally Expected

(TheLibertyRevolution.Com)- Despite what was the worst day yet in the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, some U.S. officials are seeing optimistic signs that the outcome of this pandemic may not be as worse as originally feared.
On Tuesday, authorities throughout the country reported an addition 30,700 people were infected by the coronavirus, with more than 1,800 deaths on that day. New York alone reported 731 deaths on Tuesday, but the number of new patients who were admitted to hospitals seems to be going down.
As Governor Andrew Cuomo said:
“Right now, we’re projecting that we are reaching a plateau in the total number of hospitalizations, and you can see the growth and you see it starting to flatten. Change in daily ICU admissions is way down, and that’s good news. The daily intubations number is down, and that’s good news. The discharge rate is right about where it was.”
One model that has been widely cited for projections throughout the pandemic is one conducted by the University of Washington. About a week ago, the model predicted approximately 94,000 deaths in the U.S. as a result of COVID-19 by late summer. On Tuesday, that number shifted down to about 82,000, and on Wednesday morning, it was revised down again to 60,400.
The University of Washington model has consistently predicted lower infection rates and death totals than other models. That being said, some West Coast states are sending ventilators to New York since they have a less urgent need for them in their own state.
Two of the pandemic’s central figures from the medical community said numbers like these were hopeful. As Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response director, said:
“You’re starting to see that we may be actually — in a series of communities outside of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut — creating a much flatter graph, a much flatter curve. It really gives us great heart.”
And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said:
“Everybody who knows me knows I’m very conservative about making projections, but those are the kind of good signs that you look for. You never even begin to think about claiming victory prematurely, but that’s the first thing you see when you start to see the turnaround.”
Still, other medical experts didn’t want to jump to conclusions that the U.S. is over the hump, so to speak, and ready to move on with daily life as normal. The director of health informatics at the University of Chicago’s Center for Spatial Data Science, Marynia Kolak, for example, said data they collected doesn’t show the U.S. has gotten through the worst of it yet.
“From all the data we have, it suggests we’re just beginning to approach the peak for several regions of the country.”
Even the University of Washington model predicts the apex of deaths as a result of COVID-19 won’t come until April 16, which means death tolls should continue to increase every day until then.